10-year breakeven inflation, 2003 to 2026
10-year breakeven inflation stood at 2.24% in 2026, down 5bp on the previous period.
The latest reading is 2.29 percent, for June 2026, against 2.45 percent in May 2026. The series is monthly (FRED series T10YIE) and runs from January 2003.
How it is measured
The 10-year breakeven rate: the yield gap between ordinary 10-year Treasuries and inflation-protected TIPS. Since TIPS pay inflation on top of their yield, the gap is the average annual inflation at which both bonds return the same, in other words the bond market's own inflation forecast. The data reaches us through FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's data service, and originates with Treasury market prices.
What the curve shows
The window runs from 0.25 percent (December 2008) to 2.88 percent (April 2022). Central bankers read this line as the credibility gauge: as long as it stays anchored near 2 percent, markets believe inflation will be brought to heel regardless of today's prints.
Is this a survey or a market price?
Why can it differ from actual future inflation?
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