World fertility rate, 1960 to 2024
World fertility rate stood at 2 in 2024, down 0.3% on the previous period.
Women in the world would average 2.19 births over a lifetime at 2024's age-specific birth rates, against 4.69 in 1960.
How it is measured
The figures come from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (indicator SP.DYN.TFRT.IN). The total fertility rate is a synthetic measure: take this year's birth rates at every age of a woman's reproductive life and add them up, as if one woman lived through all of them. Like life expectancy, it is a thermometer for the present, not a forecast of completed families. The data behind it is birth registration where complete, and censuses and surveys aligned with the UN World Population Prospects elsewhere.
What the curve shows
The number to hold against this curve is 2.1, the replacement level at which a generation exactly replaces itself in low-mortality societies. The world remains above it at 2.19, which means natural growth, though the direction of travel across the window, from 4.69 to 2.19, is the near-universal story of development: fertility falls as incomes, education, and urbanization rise.
Why is 2.1 the replacement level and not 2.0?
Is this a prediction of family sizes?
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