10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, 1976 to 2026

10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, monthly, from the Treasury yield curve via FRED. · updated Jul 2026

About this statistic

10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stood at 0.37% in 2026, up 1bp on the previous period.

The latest reading is 0.36 percentage points, for June 2026, against 0.49 percentage points in May 2026. The series is monthly (FRED series T10Y2Y) and runs from June 1976.

How it is measured

The ten-year Treasury yield minus the two-year: the slope of the yield curve. A positive spread is normal, since lending longer usually pays more. A negative spread, an inverted curve, means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them. The data reaches us through FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's data service, and originates with the Treasury yield curve.

What the curve shows

The spread's window runs from -2.14 (March 1980) to 2.83 (February 2010) percentage points, with the latest at 0.36. Inversions are rare and watched obsessively because each of the last several US recessions was preceded by one.

Frequently asked questions

Does an inversion guarantee a recession?

No, but the track record is strong: inversions have preceded US recessions with leads of roughly one to two years. The signal says markets expect the Fed to cut rates substantially, and recessions are historically what forces that.

Why compare the 10-year against the 2-year?

The two-year captures the expected path of Fed policy; the ten-year captures long-run growth and inflation expectations. Their gap distills the curve's whole shape into one number.

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